REPUTATION RISK INTELLIGENCE
MALAYSIA FUEL PRICE
FEAR NARRATIVE RISK MONITOR
MOF · Diesel Subsidy · BUDI MADANI RON95 | JAN – MAR 2026 | 4,347 MENTIONS | BERKSHIREMEDIA.COM.MY
Current Risk Perception Index
66.1
⚠ HIGH RISK — ACTIVE THREAT
Current RPI Score
66.1
Last 14-day average
Peak RPI Recorded
78.7
Mar 9, 2026 — CRITICAL
High-Risk Days
7
HIGH or CRITICAL level
Negative Reach
26.2M
Of 96.4M total reach
Mar Neg Escalation
+169%
vs Jan neg ratio (19%→28.8%)
Risk Perception Index
RPI MODEL
Composite score (0–100) based on 5 weighted factors
66.1
⚠ HIGH RISK
Negative Volume Ratio
72
×0.30
Neg Content Reach
58
×0.25
Fear-Coded Mentions
64
×0.20
High-Influence Neg
55
×0.15
Mention Volume Spike
48
×0.10
Daily Risk Perception Index — Jan to Mar 2026
DAILY RPI
RPI score per day with risk level thresholds overlaid — red zone indicates HIGH/CRITICAL threat periods
Weekly RPI Trend — Escalation Pattern
WEEKLY
Week-by-week RPI with volume bars — shows sudden escalation from Feb 23 as Iran conflict narrative enters
Month-over-Month Risk Escalation
ESCALATION
Jan baseline vs Feb recovery vs March crisis surge — negative ratio nearly tripled in 8 weeks
Risk Level Timeline — Day-by-Day Classification
RISK CALENDAR
Each day classified into 5 risk tiers: LOW · MODERATE · ELEVATED · HIGH · CRITICAL — sustained red periods signal reputation emergency
LOW
MODERATE
ELEVATED
HIGH
CRITICAL
Fear-Coded Neg Mentions
692
64.1% of all negative content
Fear Content Reach
18.5M
Audience exposed to fear narratives
High-Inf Neg Mentions
235
Influence score ≥ 7/9
High-Inf Neg Reach
25.4M
Credible sources amplifying risk
Facebook Neg Reach
22.5M
Dominant fear amplification channel
Negative Mention Composition
Total negative: 1,079
■ Fear-coded (692 · 64.1%) — crisis language, geopolitical anxiety, cost burden
■ Factual negative (387 · 35.9%) — policy criticism, data reporting
Fear vs Non-Fear Negative — Weekly Split
FEAR TREND
Fear-coded negative content (crisis/anxiety keywords) vs factual negative coverage per week
Fear Reach vs Positive Reach — Weekly
NARRATIVE REACH
Total audience reach of fear content vs government-positive content — gap closing in March
Fear Amplification by Channel
CHANNEL RISK
Negative reach per channel — Facebook carries 85.8% of all negative audience exposure
Top Fear-Coded Keywords
KEYWORD RISK
Most frequent keywords found in fear-negative mentions — dominant themes driving public anxiety
Fear Escalation Events — Chronological Trigger Map
TRIGGER ANALYSIS
Key events that triggered fear narrative spikes — each event's estimated reach exposure and risk classification
Govt Pro-Policy SoV
43.5%
Positive narrative share
Opposition/Crisis SoV
24.8%
Negative narrative share
Govt-Aligned Neg%
24.6%
Neg from own-side media
Opposition Neg%
24.9%
Neg from non-aligned media
Net Sentiment Mar
−0.04
Turned negative in March
Government vs Opposition Narrative — Weekly SoV Battle
SHARE OF VOICE
Positive (pro-policy) % vs Negative (critical/fear) % by week — crossing of lines = narrative inversion point
Rolling 7-Day Net Sentiment Score
SENTIMENT INDEX
Net sentiment = (positive − negative) / total — below zero means narrative is net-negative for government
Narrative Theme Volume — Weekly Evolution
THEME TRACKING
How 5 key narratives grew or declined week-by-week — shows when fear/crisis narrative overtook BUDI MADANI programme coverage
Narrative Inversion Point
KEY FINDING
When fear narrative overtook positive narrative
MAR 1
2026 — inversion confirmed
Negative daily volume first exceeded positive on March 1 and has remained dominant for 25 consecutive days
Positive vs Negative Content Volume
VS
Overall split — positive leads in raw count, but negative outpunches on reach
Reach Efficiency: Neg vs Pos
REACH/MENTION
Average reach per mention — negative content is more viral per post
Negative
24.3K avg reach/post
Positive
23.4K avg reach/post
Neutral
15.8K avg reach/post
Negative content travels 4% further per post than positive — compounding effect at scale is significant.
Top Risk Actor Reach
9.4M
Astro AWANI neg content
Mainstream Media Neg
57
Astro AWANI neg posts
BH Online Neg Reach
5.3M
16 negative articles
Viral Opposition Posts
13.8K
Interactions on top neg post
Elite Influence (9/9) Neg
235
Max-influence neg mentions
Top Negative Reach Sources — Risk Actor Ranking
RISK ACTORS
Sources with highest cumulative negative reach — sorted by reputational damage potential
Influence Score vs Negative Reach — Threat Matrix
THREAT MATRIX
High influence + high neg reach = highest reputation threat — top-right quadrant is the danger zone
Risk Actor Intelligence — Detailed Breakdown
FULL TABLE
Top 10 sources by negative reach with influence score, post count, and threat classification
| # | Source | Neg Posts | Neg Reach | Influence | Threat Level | Profile |
|---|
Top Negative Posts by Reach — Most Damaging Content
HIGH IMPACT CONTENT
Individual posts/articles with highest negative reach — these are the most reputation-damaging pieces
⚖ OVERALL VERDICT: CONFIRMED REPUTATION RISK — HIGH SEVERITY
The data confirms that fuel price fear-mongering in Malaysia poses a genuine and measurable reputation risk to the government. The Risk Perception Index peaked at 78.7/100 on March 9 — classified as CRITICAL — and has maintained an average of 66.1 over the last 14 days, firmly in the HIGH RISK zone. Critically, 64.1% of all negative mentions contain active fear-coded language — terms associated with crisis, financial burden, geopolitical danger, and political exploitation — reaching an estimated 18.5 million people. The narrative inversion point occurred on March 1, 2026, after which negative daily volume has consistently exceeded positive volume for 25 days straight. The government is currently losing the narrative war on this issue.
Finding 1 — Fear Is Manufactured, Not Organic
64.1% of negative content uses crisis keywords (Iran, Hormuz, krisis, terbeban, mahal) that are not directly tied to policy failure — they exploit geopolitical anxiety to manufacture public fear about fuel prices. This is a coordinated framing strategy, not spontaneous public concern.
Finding 2 — Mainstream Media Is the Threat Vector
Astro AWANI (9.4M neg reach), Berita Harian Online (5.3M), and Harian Metro (3.3M) — all ostensibly mainstream — are the top three sources of negative reach. This is not fringe media. The threat is coming from inside the credibility tent.
Finding 3 — Facebook Is the Fear Amplifier
Facebook accounts for 85.8% of all negative reach (22.5M of 26.2M total). Despite being 15% of mentions, Facebook's engagement rates carry fear content to enormous audiences. A single negative viral post on Facebook does more damage than 100 web articles.
Finding 4 — March Crisis Is Structural, Not Cyclical
The Iran-US conflict provided an external trigger, but the negative narrative infrastructure was already in place from January. The 169% escalation in negative ratio from January to March reflects a pre-existing vulnerability that external events rapidly activated.
Finding 5 — BUDI MADANI Success Story Is Under-Amplified
The programme has genuine wins: 3.1M daily transactions, successful MyKad targeting, 800L/month e-hailing increase. Yet positive content reaches 23.4K per post vs negative's 24.3K — the government's message exists but is not outpacing the opposition's reach efficiency.
Finding 6 — Own-Side Media Is Contributing to Risk
24.6% of government-aligned media coverage is negative — media that should be supportive is also carrying fear content. This suggests editorial independence is generating friendly-fire damage, and government communication strategy is not effectively influencing even its own media ecosystem.
Strategic Recommendations — Risk Mitigation Matrix
ACTION PLAN
Priority actions ranked by urgency and estimated impact on RPI reduction
RPI Projection — Risk Scenarios for April 2026
FORECAST
Three scenarios based on government communication response intensity — doing nothing vs partial vs full counter-narrative campaign